RXO Curve Report Shows Sharp Acceleration in Truckload Spot Rates, Up 16.5% Year Over Year in Q1 Amid Tightening Capacity
RXO, a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, has released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast, highlighting a significant upward shift in truckload spot rates. The report indicates that, excluding fuel impacts, spot rates surged 16.5% year over year in the first quarter, marking the strongest annual increase since the third quarter of 2021.
This sharp increase also represents a notable acceleration from the fourth quarter of 2025, when rates rose just 5.2% year over year. The latest figures suggest that market conditions have tightened considerably in a relatively short period, reflecting growing imbalance between available carrier capacity and freight demand.
RXO’s Curve data further suggests that the upward momentum has not slowed. Through May 15, the company indicates that the second quarter is tracking to exceed first-quarter levels, signaling continued strength in truckload pricing and sustained pressure across the spot market.
According to RXO, the primary driver behind this surge is the ongoing attrition of carrier capacity across the trucking industry. Structural exits from the market, combined with stricter federal regulatory enforcement, have reduced available supply. This contraction in capacity has gradually intensified a supply-demand imbalance, pushing spot rates higher even in the absence of strong demand growth.
The company notes that while inflationary conditions in trucking have been present for several quarters, they had not previously translated into significant pricing spikes. That dynamic has now changed.
“We’ve been in a year-over-year inflationary market for several quarters due to declining carrier capacity, but that hadn’t driven a substantial increase in rates until recently,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “The first quarter saw a significant spike in truckload rates, and that trend has continued into the first half of the second quarter. During CVSA Roadcheck last week, which further constrained capacity, truckload rates outperformed seasonality and hit levels we haven’t seen since 2022.”
His comments point to a market that is becoming increasingly sensitive to short-term capacity disruptions. Events such as the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) Roadcheck appear to have had a magnified impact this year, tightening already constrained capacity and amplifying upward pressure on pricing.
RXO also highlighted that broader cost pressures across the carrier base are contributing to the pricing environment. Rising labor costs, increased capital expenses, elevated insurance premiums, and persistently high diesel prices are all weighing on carrier profitability. These structural cost increases are forcing carriers to seek higher rates simply to maintain sustainable operations.
Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, emphasized that these financial pressures are now being reflected more clearly in both contract and linehaul pricing trends.
“We’re seeing significant linehaul and contract rate increases, despite muted shipper demand,” Weisfeld said. “Carriers remain under immense cost pressure, driven by increasing labor expenses, a higher cost of capital, insurance premiums, and, of course, diesel prices. The recent surge in rates, primarily due to continued capacity exits, has allowed carriers to begin to offset these inflationary pressures. If there is any uptick in shipping volumes, rates will rise at an even faster pace.”
His remarks underscore a key feature of the current freight cycle: pricing strength is emerging not from demand expansion, but from constrained supply conditions. Even in an environment where freight volumes remain relatively subdued, carrier exits are creating enough tightening to lift rates meaningfully.
Industry observers often view such conditions as an early-stage inflection point in the truckload cycle. When capacity exits outpace demand growth, spot markets tend to tighten first, followed by contract rate adjustments if conditions persist. RXO’s Curve data appears to reflect this progression, with both spot and contract rates moving upward in tandem.
The implication for shippers is a potentially shifting cost environment after a period of relatively soft rates. For carriers, however, the environment may offer some relief after prolonged margin pressure. The combination of rising operating costs and improving rate levels could help stabilize smaller and mid-sized fleets that have struggled in recent quarters.
RXO’s update suggests that the second quarter may bring further upside risk to freight pricing, particularly if seasonal demand strengthens or if additional regulatory or cost-driven capacity exits occur. While current demand remains muted, even modest improvements could have an outsized impact on rates given the reduced supply base.
As the market moves further into the second quarter, attention will remain focused on whether the current rate momentum stabilizes or continues accelerating. With capacity still tightening and cost pressures persistent across the industry, RXO’s Curve indicates that the truckload market may be entering a more inflationary phase than seen in recent years.
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