DAT: September Marks a Definite Shift in the Truckload Freight Cycle

Truckload freight volumes and rates in September indicate a positive shift in the typical cyclical demand for truckload capacity, according to DAT Freight & Analytics, which manages the DAT One freight marketplace and DAT iQ data analytics service. Although the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) saw seasonal declines for van, refrigerated (“reefer”), and flatbed freight, year-over-year figures reveal growth.

The TVI figures for September are as follows:

  • Van TVI: 271, down 7% month-over-month
  • Reefer TVI: 208, down 7%
  • Flatbed TVI: 272, down 2%

However, compared to September 2023, the TVI increased across all equipment types. The van TVI rose by 6%, the reefer TVI by 12%, and the flatbed TVI by 2%. Linehaul spot rates also improved year over year.

“September signals that we’re firmly in a new freight cycle after nearly 22 months of sharp expansion followed by 27 months of contraction,” said Ken Adamo, Chief of Analytics at DAT. “Seasonality should provide some positive momentum in the coming months. Ideally, modest rate improvements, along with steady retail freight volumes and stable fuel prices, will help stabilize the motor carrier industry.”

Linehaul rates steady, fuel surcharges drive down national averages

National average spot truckload rates dropped by 3 cents for all equipment types compared to August, mainly due to reduced fuel surcharges. In September, the average spot rates were:

  • Van: $1.97 per mile
  • Reefer: $2.37 per mile
  • Flatbed: $2.38 per mile

Linehaul rates, which exclude fuel surcharges, held steady at $1.59 per mile for van freight, $1.95 for reefer freight, and $1.92 for flatbed freight. Compared to last year, linehaul rates rose by 2 cents for vans, 3 cents for reefers, and 6 cents for flatbeds.

Contract rates dip slightly

Long-term contract rates saw minor declines:

  • Van: $2.39 per mile, down 1 cent
  • Reefer: $2.73 per mile, down 2 cents
  • Flatbed: $3.04 per mile, down 3 cents

Load-to-truck ratios reflect stable market conditions

The national average van load-to-truck ratio decreased slightly from 3.6 in August to 3.5, while the reefer ratio dropped from 6.0 to 5.0. However, the flatbed ratio rose to 12.8 from 9.8. These ratios, which track supply and demand on the DAT One marketplace, indicate pricing trends in the spot market.

“As we enter the fourth quarter, truckload supply and demand seem to be stabilizing, especially in the spot market,” Adamo noted. “This new freight cycle will likely resemble the steady growth seen between 2013 and 2017, rather than the volatile period of 2018 to 2022, with its ELD mandate, manufacturing recessions, and the supply shocks caused by COVID-19.

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