Economic modelling indicates major national gains from Vertical’s expansion, including £800m in annual tax contributions by 2035
Vertical Aerospace (NYSE: EVTL) (“Vertical” or “the Company”), a leading global aerospace and technology innovator at the forefront of electric aviation, has welcomed the release of an independent economic impact assessment that outlines the transformative industrial potential the company could unlock for the United Kingdom. The comprehensive report, conducted by the consultancy Frontier Economics, forecasts that Vertical is positioned to become a driving force behind a major new manufacturing and technological opportunity for the UK while establishing itself as a central player in the rapidly expanding advanced air mobility (AAM) sector.
According to Frontier Economics, Vertical Aerospace is on track to evolve into one of the country’s most significant advanced manufacturing enterprises by 2035. With electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft expected to redefine regional and urban mobility, Vertical’s technology platform, engineering capabilities and supply chain partnerships place it in an advantageous position as global markets accelerate toward zero-emission aviation solutions.
Despite the company still being in the pre-commercialization phase of its flagship VX4 aircraft, Frontier’s analysis shows that Vertical is already delivering measurable economic value to the United Kingdom. The company is creating highly skilled jobs, attracting substantial foreign direct investment and enhancing local and national supply chain resilience. Much of this impact is concentrated in the South West of England—home to the UK’s historic aerospace cluster—but the benefits extend across the wider nation as the industry prepares for commercial eVTOL deployment.
The report anticipates that Vertical’s economic contribution will scale dramatically over the next decade. By 2035, the company is projected to support more than 2,000 high-value jobs, generate nearly £9 billion in annual revenue, and evolve into a major exporter of advanced aerospace systems. Significantly, Frontier estimates that around 90% of Vertical’s revenues could come from international markets, underscoring the company’s potential to become a truly global supplier of next-generation aircraft and supporting technologies.
Frontier Economics also highlights the broader industrial and skills benefits that could result from Vertical’s expansion. The company’s planned £400 million investment into purpose-built production facilities—including its first final assembly line and battery manufacturing site—could greatly enhance the UK’s advanced manufacturing capabilities. This includes the development of new technical skills, specialized supplier networks, and long-term workforce pipelines in engineering, software, testing, battery systems and production automation.
Vertical Aerospace has already begun searching for suitable locations for these strategic production centres, with a final decision expected within approximately six months. While the UK remains a strong candidate, it is competing with several international options as the company considers supply chain logistics, talent availability, cost structures and strategic partnerships. The outcome of this decision will play a critical role in determining how much of the forecasted economic value ultimately stays within the United Kingdom.
Andrew Leicester, Executive Director at Frontier Economics, emphasized the significance of Vertical’s momentum for the country’s industrial ambitions. He commented:
“Vertical Aerospace’s trajectory illustrates how an innovative business can act as a catalyst for economic growth, industrial capability and technological leadership. Vertical’s operations are well-aligned to help the government advance its Industrial Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Sector Plan, and support its defence ambitions too through dual-use of aircraft for military and civilian purposes.
“Our independent analysis found that Vertical is a critical anchor in the fast-growing eVTOL sector, and a significant contributor to the UK’s advanced manufacturing future, particularly in the West of England.”
The report paints Vertical as not only a technology pioneer but also as a strategic asset for the government’s broader objectives in areas such as decarbonisation, digital transformation, aerospace competitiveness and national security. Advanced air mobility platforms like the VX4 have potential applications that go beyond civil transportation, potentially supporting defence operations, emergency response, medical logistics and infrastructure monitoring.
Stuart Simpson, CEO of Vertical Aerospace, underscored the importance of the findings and the momentum building behind the company’s upcoming milestones:
“Frontier’s analysis confirms the UK is on the cusp of an exciting new industrial opportunity, with Vertical positioned to become a world-leading, multi-billion-pound advanced manufacturing business.
“We have a significant few months ahead as we work to make this vision a reality – starting with our most advanced stage of testing yet and then making a final decision on the location of our production sites, whether that be in the UK or further afield. This report makes it clearer than ever what the opportunity is for Vertical and the UK – now is the time to deliver it.”
Vertical’s VX4 program continues to advance through rigorous development and testing. The aircraft is designed to offer zero-emission flight for short-range missions with low operating costs, reduced noise levels and high levels of passenger safety. Pre-orders and commitments from major operators worldwide have already signaled strong market demand for the aircraft’s commercial deployment later in the decade.
David Stepanek, Executive Vice President and Chief Transformation Officer at Bristow Group—one of Vertical’s key strategic partners—also welcomed the findings of the Frontier report. Bristow, with more than 75 years of expertise in vertical-lift aviation, plans to integrate Vertical’s aircraft into future operations.
“Frontier’s report shows the enormous economic potential of Vertical Aerospace for the UK, and Bristow is proud to be part of that journey. With 75 years of vertical-lift expertise, we are ready to help bring electric air mobility to market and deliver turnkey operations using Vertical’s VX4 aircraft for customers in the UK and worldwide.”
Frontier’s independent evaluation was based on a comprehensive methodology combining company data, stakeholder interviews, procurement assessments and advanced economic modelling. The report assessed both current and future impacts across direct operations, indirect supply chain activity and wider economic benefits.
The modelling shows that Vertical’s workforce is expected to grow from 479 employees today to around 2,200 by 2035, spanning engineering, digital systems, propulsion, testing, design, manufacturing and customer support. This scale-up is projected to deliver significant spillover benefits, including new apprenticeship programs, R&D collaborations, and regional economic regeneration.
Furthermore, by the end of the period, Frontier estimates that Vertical could contribute almost £800 million annually in tax revenues, reflecting the company’s transition from an R&D-focused organization to a full commercial production entity with global export strength.
Overall, the report presents a compelling case for Vertical Aerospace as a once-in-a-generation industrial opportunity for the UK. As the global shift to electric aviation accelerates, Vertical’s technological progress, supply chain network and strategic partnerships position it at the forefront of the emerging AAM market. The next six months—particularly the location decision for its production sites and the execution of its upcoming test campaigns—will play a pivotal role in determining how much of this multi-billion-pound opportunity ultimately materializes within the country.
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