Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2025–2030: Key Players Include Neste, Shell, TotalEnergies & More
A new research report titled “Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market by Fuel Type (Biofuel, Hydrogen, PtL, GtL), Biofuel Conversion Pathways (HEFA, FT, ATJ, Co-processing), Blending Capacity, Aircraft Type, and Region – Global Forecast to 2030″ has been released by ResearchAndMarkets.com. The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the rapidly expanding sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market, providing valuable insights for stakeholders across the aviation and energy sectors.
According to the report, the global sustainable aviation fuel market is projected to grow from an estimated USD 2.06 billion in 2025 to USD 25.62 billion by 2030, representing a staggering compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.5%. In volume terms, consumption is expected to surge from 0.30 billion gallons in 2025 to 3.68 billion gallons by 2030. This dramatic growth trajectory underscores the aviation industry’s increasing commitment to decarbonization and the critical role that SAF is expected to play in achieving climate targets.
Understanding Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Sustainable aviation fuel is derived from renewable feedstocks such as agricultural waste, used cooking oil, municipal solid waste, and non-food biomass. Unlike conventional jet fuel, SAF significantly reduces life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions—by up to 80% in some cases—making it a central pillar in aviation’s journey toward net-zero emissions. As the urgency to combat climate change intensifies, SAF has transitioned from a novel concept to a strategic imperative for airlines, governments, and fuel producers alike.
SAF is compatible with existing aircraft engines and airport fueling infrastructure, enabling a seamless transition without requiring substantial retrofitting or investment in new equipment. This “drop-in” capability makes SAF particularly attractive for large-scale implementation, as it minimizes operational disruptions while delivering substantial environmental benefits.
Market Dynamics and Key Drivers
The report highlights several key factors driving growth in the SAF market:
- Global Net-Zero Commitments: Airlines and aviation regulators across the world are aligning with the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This has spurred aggressive SAF adoption initiatives.
- Government Policies and Incentives: Regulatory frameworks, such as the European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation proposal and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, are incentivizing SAF production and mandating its blending with conventional fuels.
- Technological Advancements: Innovations in feedstock conversion pathways—such as Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Fischer-Tropsch (FT), Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and co-processing technologies—are making SAF production more efficient and cost-effective.
- Rising Fuel Demand and Environmental Awareness: As global air traffic continues to rebound post-COVID, airlines are under pressure to adopt cleaner fuels. Consumers are also demanding greener travel options, prompting companies to invest in SAF for reputation and compliance.
Competitive Landscape
Major players dominating the SAF landscape include Neste (Finland), Shell (UK), TotalEnergies (France), OMV Group (Austria), and World Energy, LLC (UK). These companies benefit from robust global supply chains and distribution networks that span North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East.
Each player is aggressively investing in expanding production capacity, forming strategic partnerships with airlines and airports, and developing next-generation SAF technologies. For instance, Neste has been at the forefront of SAF production and is collaborating with multiple carriers to scale usage globally.
Market Segmentation: Aircraft Types and End Users
The SAF market is segmented by aircraft type into commercial aviation, military aviation, business & general aviation, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Among these, commercial aviation is expected to be the dominant segment in terms of market share, owing to the sheer volume of jet fuel consumed by commercial airliners.
However, the business and general aviation segment is also poised for substantial growth, emerging as the second-largest market segment by 2025. This includes private jets, charter flights, and non-commercial aircraft. Increasing environmental scrutiny and pressure from clients and regulators are driving this segment’s transition toward SAF.
Leading business jet manufacturers like Bombardier, Dassault, and Gulfstream are actively certifying their fleets for SAF compatibility. Many operators are incorporating SAF into their operations as part of broader environmental, social, and governance (ESG) commitments. Given that these aircraft typically have higher fuel consumption per flight hour relative to their size, even small-scale adoption can lead to meaningful reductions in emissions, further fueling market expansion.
End-User Insights: Airliners Lead the Way
The airliner segment—which includes commercial airlines flying scheduled passenger services—is forecasted to hold the largest share of the SAF market by 2025. This is driven by the continuing expansion of global air travel for both tourism and business purposes, coupled with regulatory mandates to reduce aviation emissions.
Airlines are not only scaling their fleets but also replacing older, fuel-inefficient aircraft with new-generation models that are SAF-compatible. Companies are also investing in operational efficiency and digital transformation initiatives, including AI and IoT, to enhance performance and sustainability.
Strategic partnerships between airlines and SAF producers are becoming increasingly common. Long-term procurement agreements provide supply certainty for airlines and demand assurance for producers, fostering a symbiotic ecosystem that drives down SAF costs over time.
Regional Analysis: Europe at the Forefront
Geographically, Europe is projected to hold the second-largest share of the global SAF market by 2025, trailing only North America. The continent’s leadership in climate policy and sustainable transportation initiatives positions it as a hub for SAF development and adoption.
The European Union has enacted several landmark policies, including the ReFuelEU Aviation mandate and the expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which are compelling airlines to incorporate SAF into their fuel mix. Countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are investing heavily in SAF infrastructure, including production facilities and supply chains.
Europe is also home to leading SAF producers such as SkyNRG and Neste, and the region’s airlines are among the most proactive in trialing and adopting SAF for regular operations. These factors, combined with supportive government policies and consumer demand, are expected to sustain Europe’s strong market position through 2030.
Report Highlights and Strategic Insights
The report delivers a thorough examination of the SAF market through the following lenses:
- Market Penetration: In-depth profiling of SAF offerings by leading market participants, including technological capabilities and service portfolios.
- Product Development and Innovation: Insights into R&D activities, emerging SAF technologies, and upcoming product launches.
- Market Development: Identification of high-growth regions and untapped opportunities.
- Market Diversification: Coverage of new business models, evolving customer needs, and recent market entrants.
- Competitive Assessment: Comparative analysis of market shares, growth strategies, and strategic moves by key players.
A Decisive Decade for SAF
The period from 2025 to 2030 represents a decisive window for sustainable aviation fuel to transition from a niche product to a mainstream energy solution. With supportive policies, escalating environmental pressures, and advancing technologies, SAF is on the cusp of transforming global aviation.
Stakeholders across the value chain—including fuel producers, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, investors, and policymakers—are urged to align strategies, capitalize on emerging opportunities, and drive coordinated action to scale SAF adoption. As SAF production ramps up and economies of scale take hold, the fuel’s cost competitiveness is expected to improve, accelerating its integration into the global aviation ecosystem.
By 2030, sustainable aviation fuel will not only play a vital role in reducing aviation’s carbon footprint but also serve as a cornerstone of the industry’s long-term sustainability strategy.