RXO Releases Latest Curve Truckload Market Forecast
RXO, a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, has released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast, offering a comprehensive overview of freight market dynamics as the industry moves into a new year. The report delivers a detailed recap of fourth-quarter truckload performance, evaluates key macroeconomic indicators influencing freight demand and capacity, and outlines expectations for the first quarter. The newest Curve data points to a renewed surge in truckload rate inflation, signaling a notable market shift after several quarters of moderating increases.
Fourth-Quarter Performance Signals Renewed Rate Momentum
According to the Curve index, spot truckload rates rose 5.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a sharp acceleration compared with the 1.8% year-over-year increase recorded in the third quarter. This resurgence follows a multi-quarter trend in which rates had continued to rise compared with the prior year but at a steadily slowing pace. The fourth quarter, however, broke from that pattern, as inflationary pressure in truckload pricing re-intensified and demonstrated stronger staying power than earlier spikes.
The data reveals that while spot rates have technically been on an upward trajectory since the first quarter of 2024, the broader freight environment had struggled to sustain consistent upward momentum. Temporary surges were often followed by corrections back toward baseline levels. In contrast, the most recent quarter shows signs of a more durable tightening of supply and demand conditions. Early first-quarter figures, measured through mid-February, indicate that the index is continuing to climb, reinforcing the narrative that the freight market has entered a different phase of the cycle.
Capacity Attrition and External Disruptions Reshape the Market
Despite relatively muted freight volumes overall, structural and operational factors are reshaping the balance between capacity and demand. Continued attrition in carrier capacity remains a defining feature of the current cycle. Thousands of carriers have exited the market over the past several years, driven by prolonged periods of depressed rates and sustained cost pressures. The reduction in available trucks has incrementally tightened the marketplace, leaving it more susceptible to volatility when disruptions occur.
Late peak season fluctuations and severe winter storms further compounded fourth-quarter challenges. Weather-related events disrupted regional networks, causing delays and tightening short-term capacity in affected lanes. Seasonal volatility that would normally be absorbed by surplus capacity instead translated into measurable rate increases, as fewer carriers remained available to respond flexibly to shifting demand patterns.
The result has been a fragile equilibrium between supply and demand. Even though freight volumes have not surged dramatically, the reduced cushion in capacity has magnified the pricing impact of relatively modest demand shifts. This dynamic underscores the structural sensitivity of the current truckload environment.
Spot Rates Climb Amid Persistent Cost Pressures
While spot rates are trending upward, carriers continue to operate under intense financial strain. Operating expenses—including insurance, equipment maintenance, labor, and regulatory compliance—remain elevated. For many small and mid-sized carriers, the past several years of suppressed rate environments eroded margins and depleted cash reserves. Although rate increases in the fourth quarter provided some relief, they have not fully offset cumulative cost burdens.
This persistent imbalance between cost inflation and rate recovery has accelerated capacity exits, reinforcing the cycle of tightening supply. As more carriers leave the industry, the remaining operators gain modest pricing leverage, but they also face heightened operational demands in a leaner market. The interplay between rising rates and ongoing financial stress contributes to a market environment that remains highly sensitive to even incremental changes in demand.
December Marks a Turning Point
According to Corey Klujsza, Vice President of Pricing and Procurement at RXO, the most significant inflection occurred in December. After nearly two years of episodic but unsustainable rate spikes, the market demonstrated a different pattern in late 2025. Rather than retreating after the holiday shipping rush, rates maintained their upward trajectory.
Historically, January and February represent the slowest shipping months of the year, characterized by post-holiday demand softening and reduced freight activity. However, current network key performance indicators suggest that the market is outpacing traditional seasonality. Instead of retracing gains, the Curve index has continued to strengthen into the first quarter, signaling that underlying supply constraints are exerting greater influence than seasonal demand cycles alone.
This divergence from historical norms suggests that structural capacity reductions may now be the dominant force in rate formation. In prior cycles, abundant carrier availability dampened prolonged price escalations. In the present environment, reduced fleet counts limit the market’s ability to absorb fluctuations without corresponding rate impacts.
Regulatory Shifts Accelerate Driver Attrition
In addition to economic pressures, regulatory changes and heightened enforcement activity have contributed to accelerated driver attrition. Over recent quarters, compliance requirements and oversight measures have tightened, increasing operational complexity and costs for carriers. These regulatory dynamics have disproportionately affected smaller operators with limited administrative resources, further driving exits from the market.
The cumulative effect of regulatory headwinds and prolonged low-rate conditions has deepened the supply imbalance. As drivers leave the workforce or transition out of long-haul trucking roles, replenishing capacity becomes increasingly challenging. Training pipelines and recruitment efforts require time to rebuild sustainable workforce levels, meaning near-term relief on the capacity side may remain limited.
Demand Outlook Offers Cautious Optimism
On the demand side, the outlook presents a mix of caution and potential opportunity. U.S. consumers and shippers have exhibited hesitancy amid broader economic uncertainties, contributing to softer freight volumes in certain sectors. However, recent industrial production data suggests incremental improvement in manufacturing output, which could translate into stronger freight flows in coming months.
Government stimulus initiatives and targeted economic measures may also bolster activity in infrastructure, industrial, and consumer segments. Even a modest uptick in demand could amplify rate and volatility pressures in the current constrained-capacity environment. Given the fragile shipping landscape, incremental freight growth has the potential to trigger disproportionate pricing reactions.
First-Quarter Forecast Points to Continued Tightness
Looking ahead, RXO’s first-quarter freight market forecast anticipates ongoing tightness in truckload capacity. Early data indicates that spot rates are continuing to trend higher through mid-February, reinforcing the possibility that first-quarter results will reflect sustained inflationary momentum. While unexpected macroeconomic shifts could alter the trajectory, the prevailing indicators suggest that the balance of risk skews toward continued upward rate pressure.
Seasonal slowdowns appear less influential than structural capacity constraints, and volatility may persist as weather events, regulatory developments, or demand fluctuations interact with limited supply buffers. Shippers may need to adopt more strategic procurement approaches, while carriers must balance pricing opportunities with operational sustainability.
Data-Driven Insights Through the Curve
The Curve forecast exemplifies RXO’s commitment to delivering data-driven, market-based insights designed to help shippers and carriers navigate an evolving freight landscape. By integrating performance data, macroeconomic indicators, and network-level analytics, the proprietary model provides stakeholders with a forward-looking perspective on truckload market conditions.
In a period defined by heightened uncertainty and structural shifts, access to reliable intelligence is increasingly critical. The current freight cycle reflects a market recalibrating after years of oversupply and suppressed rates. Capacity attrition, regulatory influences, and emerging demand signals are converging to reshape pricing dynamics.
As the truckload sector advances into the new quarter, the interplay between constrained capacity and potential demand recovery will remain central to rate formation. If industrial output strengthens or consumer activity accelerates, the existing fragility in supply could translate into sharper volatility and sustained rate inflation. Conversely, if demand remains subdued, gradual adjustments may stabilize conditions over time.
For now, the fourth-quarter data underscores a clear shift: truckload rates are rising at a faster pace, and unlike prior brief spikes, this momentum has extended beyond the traditional holiday peak. The Curve’s early first-quarter readings reinforce that the market is operating outside typical seasonal patterns. In an environment where capacity exits have narrowed margins for flexibility, even incremental changes can have outsized impacts. Through its ongoing analysis and forecasting capabilities, RXO aims to equip industry participants with the tools necessary to respond proactively to these evolving market realities.
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